Corbyn gives a bounce to Welsh Labour
The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll for ITV Wales and the Welsh Governance Centre shows an increase of support for Labour at both Westminster and Assembly elections.
For the Westminster election Labour are at 42% up 5 percentage points from the June poll. Again for the Assembly election there is an increase Labour are at 39% a 4 percent increase from June.
Both would indicate that Jeremy Corbyn’s election as party leader is having a positive impact for Labour in Wales unlike Britain as a whole where the polls have not shown a “Corbyn-bounce.”
The general election voting intention for all the parties are:
Labour: 42% (+5)
Conservative: 26% (-2)
UKIP: 16% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 10% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1)
Others: 2% (-2)
The brackets show the changes since the last poll conducted in June.
In the general election Labour had 36.9% of the vote causing them to loose Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd, all to the Conservatives. The latest poll shows them winning all three seats back.
UKIP predicted to gain eight seats
For the Assembly elections Labour’s support is strengthened but there’s less of a‘Corbyn effect’. Understandably as he’s not standing after all it’s Carwyn Jones that’s Labour’s leader in Wales and its his election to win or loose. The full results for seats are:
Labour: 39% (+4)
Conservatives: 23% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Others: 2% (-1)
Again the brackets show the changes since the last poll was conducted in June. These figures show Plaid Cymru gaining Llanelli from Labour. But there is a proportional element to Assemble elections with the regional lists. Here the poll indicates the votes are as follows:
Labour: 34% (+2)
Conservatives: 24% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 14% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 2% (-1)
According to Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre it would result in the following outcome.
Labour: 29 seats (27 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seats (1 constituency seat)
Labour would be well satisfied to only be down one seat from the thirty they hold at the moment and after such a poor general election result they will be quietly confident heading into next May’s election on the basis of this poll.
According to Professor Scully “the poll point to Labour doing particularly well amongst some of those who voted for Plaid Cymru and the Lib-Dems in May’s general election: nearly a quarter of those in our sample who voted for Plaid Cymru, and almost a third of Lib-Dem voters, now say they would vote Labour in a general election.”
The Conservatives although going down to 12 seats from their current 14 will also be encouraged. On these figures they retain their roll of being the Official Opposition
Plaid Cymru, although only losing one seat, must be a disappointment with the poll showing them slipping by two points across the board. Now they’ve the prospect of UKIP breathing down their necks for the popular vote.
The poll is good news for UKIP. Their strong performance in May’s general election shows no sign of waning and on this poll they arrive in the Assembly with a massive eight seats. With this comes resources which will further help them gain a foothold in future Welsh politics. It is understandable why some of their nationally prominent members are eyeing a place on the UKIP list.
The Liberal Democrats go down to one and in Assembly terms would cease to be a recognised party.
If these were the actual results after next May its unlikely that there would be a change in governance. Labour although not having a majority would have two choices. They could go into a coalition with Plaid Cymru or try running a minority government. But with such a fragmented Opposition the temptation to go it alone would probably win the day.