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Assembly will see the arrival of UKIP says latest poll.

IMG_0010No change for Westminster but Assembly sees UKIP arrive

.The relative popularity of political parties show little change since the general election according to an all-Wales poll.

YouGov conducted the poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University shows that for the Westminster election very little change in the way voters would cast their votes if a general election was held now to the actual one held last May.

Level of support for the parties are (indicate actual vote in May):

Labour: 37% (no change)

Conservative: 28% (+1)

UKIP: 15% (+1)

Plaid Cymru: 12% (no change)

Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2.5)

Greens: 3% (no change)

Others: 1% (no change

It’s early days to predict what’s going to happen in five year time and we can certainly expect things to change as soon as young George Osborne’ s budget next month, for better or worse.

Of much more interest is what’s going to happen next May’s election to the National Assembly. Here the polls paint a very different picture.

As one would expect in these elections Plaid Cymru do much better in the polls than they do for the Westminster elections but not good enough to overtake the Tories to become the official opposition.

Assembly elections

For the constituency vote for the Assembly, these were the levels of support (the brackets indicate the last YouGov poll in Wales conducted on the eve of the general election):

Labour: 35% (no change)

Conservatives: 23% (+1)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (-1)

UKIP: 14% (+2)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

Greens: 3% (1)

Others: 0% (-1)

According to Professor Scully of Cardiff University  only two constituency seats would change hands from the last Assembly election in 2011: the Liberal Democrats would narrowly regain Cardiff Central from Labour, while Labour would also lose Llanelli to Plaid Cymru.

Now the  figures for the regional list continue to show UKIP polling well and certainly claiming its place in the Assembly for the first time.

Labour: 32% (no change)

Conservatives: 22% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 20% (no change)

UKIP: 14% (+1)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

Greens: 4% (no change)

Others: 3% (no change)

According to Professor Scully the polls would see an Assembly where Labour was still the largest party and would remain the governing party but tantalisingly short of a majority with twenty eight seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats). They currently have 30 Assembly Members.

The Tories would remain the Official Opposition with twelve seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats). Down 2 Assembly Members from 14.

Plaid Cymru go down one to ten seats.(6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)

Strangely, its the party that is seen as an English nationalist party that has most to crow about. As the new kids on the Assembly block they gain eight seats. All of them on the regional lists.

The Liberal Democrats come down to two seats, Brecon and Cardiff Central and have no lists seats. On these figures they would no longer by recognised as a political group in the Assembly which carries with it financial implications for the party.

UKIP and Labour happy

Two political parties will be more than satisfied if what the polls are predicting comes to pass. Ukip will have their first foothold in the Assembly and with it the opportunity to hire staff that will give the party a much needed professional base in Wales.

Labour will be happy to be faced with an Opposition that is split between four parties making it much easier for them to govern alone. It’s difficult to see the opposition getting their act together to defeat Labour on many issues given that some parties have already said they will not co-operate with UKIP.

All in all Carwyn Jones must be a happy bunny. A divided Opposition allows him another five years of government without having to put up with a coalition partner. Joy indeed for the Labour ranks.

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