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All Wales poll shows little change in voting intention

Will the polls be right and show little change in who Wales elect?

Will the polls be right and show little change in who Wales elect?

Polls show little change in voting intention in Wales.

The latest Welsh Political Barometer  conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales and the Welsh Governance Centre show that despite the best effort of the parties since the start of the year little has changed.

Labour party are still by far the popular choice of the Welsh people and look set fair to  grab another two seats in Cardiff  giving them 28 Welsh seats.

According to Professor Roger Scully  the Conservatives will continue to return eight Members to Westminster  but not necessarily the same seats as now. He sees them losing Cardiff North to Labour but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.

Labour 40% (+1) Seats 28
Conservatives 25% (no change) Seats 8
Ukip 14% (no change) Seats 0
Plaid Cymru 11% (+1) Seats 3
Green 5% (-1) Seats 0
Liberal Democrats 5% (no change) Seats 1
Others 1% (no change) Seats 0

The Liberal Democrats also according to the poll loose Cardiff Central, leaving them with only one MP in Wales and that’s in Ceredigion a seat that Plaid Cymru have in their list of target seats.

Plaid Cymru according to the Professor simply hold on to their existing three seats.

Because the first past the post voting system despite polling better than Plaid Cymru, Ukip will not see that reflected in seats gained.

Seats to watch

Unlike what is predicted by Professor Scully, this Almanac sees the Ukip vote influencing the results in many more seats.

On election night it might be useful to keep a weather eye on a number of other seats because of the Ukip factor.

In the North there are three seats that could change hands because of the high Ukip vote – Plaid Cymru might gain Ynys Mon and Labour could benefit in Aberconwy and Clwyd West.

In South Wales Ukip could upset Labour in Llanelli giving the seat to Plaid and the Conservatives could find Labour recapture the Vale of Glamorgan.

The campaign officially gets under way today and it will be interesting to see whether after all the frenetic activity it makes the blind bit of difference.


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One Response to “All Wales poll shows little change in voting intention”

  1. Wales No More says:

    For almost a 100 years Wales has voted Labour and since we’ve had regular welsh opinion polls they’ve shown the Welsh electorate continues to only have eyes for Labour no matter what, making me wonder if there’s any need for elections in Wales with an opposition unable to challenge, why not let Labour appoint 40 MP’s and 60 AM’s every 4 or 5 years and the rest of us can go back to sleep.

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