Polls show little change in voting intention in Wales.
The latest Welsh Political Barometer conducted by YouGov for ITV Wales and the Welsh Governance Centre show that despite the best effort of the parties since the start of the year little has changed.
Labour party are still by far the popular choice of the Welsh people and look set fair to grab another two seats in Cardiff giving them 28 Welsh seats.
According to Professor Roger Scully the Conservatives will continue to return eight Members to Westminster but not necessarily the same seats as now. He sees them losing Cardiff North to Labour but gaining Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.
|Labour||40% (+1) Seats 28|
|Conservatives||25% (no change) Seats 8|
|Ukip||14% (no change) Seats 0|
|Plaid Cymru||11% (+1) Seats 3|
|Green||5% (-1) Seats 0|
|Liberal Democrats||5% (no change) Seats 1|
|Others||1% (no change) Seats 0|
The Liberal Democrats also according to the poll loose Cardiff Central, leaving them with only one MP in Wales and that’s in Ceredigion a seat that Plaid Cymru have in their list of target seats.
Plaid Cymru according to the Professor simply hold on to their existing three seats.
Because the first past the post voting system despite polling better than Plaid Cymru, Ukip will not see that reflected in seats gained.
Seats to watch
Unlike what is predicted by Professor Scully, this Almanac sees the Ukip vote influencing the results in many more seats.
On election night it might be useful to keep a weather eye on a number of other seats because of the Ukip factor.
In the North there are three seats that could change hands because of the high Ukip vote – Plaid Cymru might gain Ynys Mon and Labour could benefit in Aberconwy and Clwyd West.
In South Wales Ukip could upset Labour in Llanelli giving the seat to Plaid and the Conservatives could find Labour recapture the Vale of Glamorgan.
The campaign officially gets under way today and it will be interesting to see whether after all the frenetic activity it makes the blind bit of difference.