Politicians are quick to condemn polls that don’t run in their favour. So one would expect all the established parties to show some distain towards the latest Welsh poll. But the parties ignore them at their peril.
Leanne Wood devoted a large part of her conference speech to attacking UKIP. These polls show why.
The polls if they are unchanged by European polling day show Jill Evans the party’s sole member in Europe losing her seat. The results would give Labour two seats and UKIP and the Tories sharing the other two.
Plaid, also seem to be slipping behind in the Westminster poll. Leanne Wood’s leadership is not giving Plaid the edge that they hoped for in the valleys of South Wales and things look a bit difficult in their Arfon seat in the next general election although the personal vote of Hywel Williams might just prove the poll wrong by election day.
It even shows them failing to win back the Ceredigion seat despite the general slump in the support for the Liberal Democrat vote. It is only in the Assembly elections that Plaid stand their ground, holding on to all eleven of their seats.
According to the poll Ceredigion will be the sole Liberal Democrat seat left in Wales after the general election. Losing Cardiff Central to Labour and Brecon & Radnor to the Tories. Thingds look pretty grim for them in the Assembly elections too. They drop from their current 5 Members to 2. A big loss, not only in Members but also in those that are employed by the party as support staff and thus hits their ability to build them selves back up.
Labour will be more than happy with what the polls predict for the general election. Moving up from the 26 seats they hold now to 31. But in the Assembly elections, Labour lose some ground but from a high base. Whilst they lose one seat, it brings them down to 29, two short from an overall majority. But with the opposition being fragmented between 4 parties with the arrival of UKIP, Labour are in a more comfortable position to govern than they are now. Labour will hardly feel the necessity to seek a coalition partner to govern Wales.
It is UKIP that will be most satisfied with the poll, it shows them now being important players on the Welsh political scene with 5 Assembly Members.
For full details of the poll see the Elections in Wales web page. (http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/04/24/a-new-voting-intention-poll-in-wales/)