YouGov have produced a new Welsh opinion poll for Elections in Wales. The Almanac compares it to the ITV/YouGov February poll. The figures in bracket are the results in the last General or Assembly elections.
Labour continue to dominate Welsh politics. Despite the best efforts of the opposition parties in the Assembly to blame them for poor performance it hasn’t affected their popularity with Welsh voters. According to the poll they gain eight seats in the general election bringing their tally to 34. But they real excitement for Carwyn Jones is that he gains that all important majority all be it by one vote with 31seats.
Its a different story for the Tories. Although they take a hit in the general election losing four seats, the poll shows them decimated at the next Assembly elections. They fall from being the official opposition to being the fourth party with only six seats. Why? They lose three constituency seats but only gain three in the PR regional list system.
UKIP do well gaining eight seats in the regions and leapfrog the Tories into third place. They outpoll the Tories on the regional list system.
Plaid Cymru will be disappointed. There is certainly no breakthrough under Leanne Wood’s leadership in the general election, indeed if the polls are replicated in the general election Plaid are down two seats.
However more cheerful news for them in the Assembly elections. It looks as if Labour supporters have now understood the nature of the regional list system and are not wasting their votes by voting Labour on the lists where they stand no chance of winning seats. The beneficiaries are Plaid Cymru moving back to being the Official Opposition with 13 seats up two on the 2011 election results.
The Liberal Democrats fall back to only having a single member from Wales in the UK Parliament and fall from five to two Assembly Members. It seems that the trend continues of the junior party in a coalition gets hit hardest by the voters.
UK General Election Voting Intention
Feb 2013(ITV/YouGov) July 2013(Elections in Wales/YouGov)
Labour: 51% (+15%) Labour: 48% (+12%)
Conservative: 22% (-4%) Conservative: 23% (-3%)
Lib-Dems: 9% (-11%) Lib-Dems: 8% (-12%)
Plaid Cymru: 10% (-1%) Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2%)
UKIP: 8% (+6%)
Others: 9% (+3%) Others: 4%
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)
Feb 2013 July 2013
Labour: 46% (+4%) Labour: 46% (+4%)
Conservative: 21% (-4%) Conservative: 19% (-6%)
Lib-Dems: 10% (-1%) Lib-Dems: 8% (-3%)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%)
UKIP: 6% (+6%)
Others: 6% (+3%) Others: 3%
National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Feb 2013 July 2013
Labour: 26% (-11%) Labour: 25% (-12%)
Conservative: 14% (-9%) Conservative: 12% (-11%)
Lib-Dems: 11% (-3%) Lib-Dems: 9%(+1)
Plaid Cymru: 26% (+8%) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%)
UKIP: 16% (+11%)
Number of Seats in Assembly
Total sample size of the July poll was 1,012 Welsh adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 18-22 July 2013. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Welsh adults (aged 18+).