Archive for December, 2011

A year’s a long time

From a pink elephant to Father Christmas, what a political year it’s been.

In Wales, It started so promisingly for the political class, they had a referendum to occupy themselves with. Should Wales have direct law making powers or not?

You’d think it would raise some real passion, not a bit of it. Those that wanted a real fight were sadly disappointed.

In the yes corner you had the whole of the Welsh establishment. In the other corner a pink inflatable elephant. No contest. A win for the ‘yes’ side and for more powers.

A majority in all areas of Wales apart from, you guessed it, Monmouthshire. The settled view of the minority that bothered to vote and a big yawn for over 60% of the population outside the Cardiff Bay bubble, who couldn’t care less.

And, just like buses, you wait for ages for a referendum and then two come along together. No sooner had the one on more powers for Wales been concluded, the country was being asked what voting system it wanted for Westminster elections. The answer? ‘Don’t care a toss’ , with only 41% bothering to vote.

The real losers were the Liberal Democrats who had been pushing for ‘a fair voting system’ for years. By ‘fair’ they meant the Single Transferrable Vote (STV) but the coalition negotiations foisted the Alternative Vote (AV) system on them. And even this would not happen without a win in a referendum.

The vote was lost. The ‘yes’ for change vote was 32.1%, the ‘no’ got over twice as much with 67.9%.

Not a good year for the Liberal Democrats. Their u-turn on students fees made them the target of student protests, a lost vote on AV and by the year end their coalition partners pull the rug from under them, on Europe. It’s difficult to see what the Liberal Democrats are getting out of the coalition, except for some, their butts on the back seat of government chauffeured cars.

But PR came to the party’s aid in May’s Welsh elections. The system prevented the Liberal Democrats from a wipe out in the Welsh Assembly elections.

Despite dropping down to their lowest share of the vote, a little over ten per cent, they still returned five Assembly Members. Only down one from when they had about 15% of the vote.

Mind you, it took a while before two of those list places could be filled. Two of the candidates concerned had cocked up their declaration forms. They were members of prescribed public bodies and were ineligible to take up seats in the Assembly.

After a suspension, one came back, namely Aled Roberts, but John Dixon failed to win support and had to step down in favour of Eluned Parrot, the next Liberal Democrat on the South Wales Central list.

But the real losers in the May elections were Plaid Cymru. They lost their grip on power.

Oh how, they must have though after such a success in the referendum a grateful electorate would reward them. Not a bit of it. They polled abominably. They took third place, 3 seats behind the Conservatives who reached 14 seats. Plaid’s worse results since the National Assembly was established and the Conservatives best.

But for the Conservative’s success was bittersweet, in the form of a lost leader. Nick Bourne their leader lost his seat on the top of the Conservative list in Mid Wales because of the success of the party in winning constituency seats. Result Bourne out, and after the steady hand of interim leader Paul Davies, Andrew RT Davies in. He just nosed in front of Nick Ramsey to become the first Conservative Leader of the Opposition in the Welsh Assembly.

And the winner, Carwyn Jones’s Labour. Half the seats in the Assembly, the Liberal Democrats back his budget so it’s all plain sailing for him.

But in politics it’s seldom without hitches. Christmas bought an unexpected gaff when he questioned on S4C the existence of Father Christmas. Result, Paddy Power, make him 10/1 to resign next year.

And that was the year that was in Welsh politics. This blog will go into winter hibernation for a few days now. Back with you in the new year.

So have a good Christmas one and all.

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The best leader ever?

It’s unlikely to come up as a question in a Christmas quiz, but nevertheless a point of discussion amongst political anoraks on the eve of Plaid Cymru’s leadership election, who has been their most successful leader to date?

Now most would mention the saintly Gwynfor Evans who turned, what was essentially a protest movement to safeguard the Welsh language, into a recognisable political party. Indeed his election to parliament as Plaid Cymru’s first MP was a breakthrough and a coming of age for the party as a force in Welsh elected politics.

But if the measure of leadership is winning votes and seats Gwynfor Evans period as leader was not great. Why? Well, he was careless with his own seat and lost it twice. To loose a seat once may be sheer bad luck, but to loose a seat twice can be seen as careless.

It was Dafydd Elis-Thomas and Dafydd Wigley that gave the party a boost by winning Merionydd and Caernarfon for the party in February 1974.

Gwynfor subsequently joined them in October of that year and had another term until losing his seat in 1979.

Plaid Cymru’s vote had gone up to 175,016(11.5%) votes in Parliamentary elections in 1970 when they fought every constituency in Wales for the first time but down again to 132,544(8.1%) in 1979 when Mrs Thatcher won the UK election

In 1981 Dafydd Wigley took over from Evans as President/Leader of the party. He took over a party that was demoralised having seen its vote go down in the election and perhaps even more of a blow seeing Wales reject even a modest amount of devolution in the 1979 referendum.

But before Wigley could make his mark the internal politics of the party saw him resign, the lefty MP for Meirionydd, Dafydd Elis-Thomas who took over as President in 1985. Under him they gained a third seat in the 1987 election. Ieuan Wyn Jones was elected as MP for Ynys Mon.

Wigley again elbowed his way back to the presidency of the party and saw the party gain it’s fourth Member in Westminster in the 1992 general election. They remained at four until Simon Thomas lost Ceridigion to the Liberal Democrats in 2005

Meanwhile, of course, Plaid’s focus moved from Westminster to Cardiff Bay with the setting up of the National Assembly for Wales.

Under the leadership of Dafydd Wigley in the 1999 Plaid Cymru gained 17 seats in the Assembly and over 28 per cent of the vote. Their most successful results ever. But to who goes the credit? Wigley as leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones the campaign coordinator.

Certainly Plaid Cymru were helped by the perceived disunity within Labour ranks. Labour had had two bruising elections for the leadership of the Welsh party.The first was between Ron Davies and Rhodri Morgan, which the former won but had to subsequently resign after a sex scandal. Then Rhodri Morgan took on Alun Michael who was parachuted in by Tony Blair. Morgan took on the party machine and lost although took over without a contest when Michael resigned.

In that first Assembly election Plaid won seats in the South Wales valleys for the first time, ever. But the best of times were followed by the worst of times. Wigley retired on health grounds. Ieuan Wyn Jones took over as leader. But the party’s vote took a tumble in 2003 Assembly elections. A drop in their seats from 17 to 14 and the party’s share of the votes dropping by over 7%.

Jones resigned the Presidency and the leadership of the Plaid group in the Assembly. The party decided to separate the presidency from that of leader and the come back kid of Welsh politics won back his old job. The party members decided that they liked the cut of his jib when compared to Helen Mary Jones and Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other candidates. So Ieuan Wyn Jones became leader of the party with Dafydd Iwan becoming President.

The next Assembly election saw Plaid Cymru gain back three seats. Labour found themselves with only 26 seats. This put Ieuan Wyn Jones in a pivotal position in Welsh politics. He could head a coalition of non-Labour parties and become Plaid Cymru’s first First Minister. Or could form a coalition with Labour. Jones decided to throw his lot with Labour. History will decide whether he was right or wrong.

The gains of government did not last and the party lost seats. They became the third party in the Assembly and their leader decides to step down. But that’s politics. One minute you’re running the roost next minute you’re on your backside.

Nevertheless for a party that only had 609 votes in 1929 to become a party of government in a little under eighty years is no mean achievement. And all this under a man that many describe as lacking charisma. The party might well reflect on this when choosing his successor, it’s not always the obvious one in politics that get the results.

But back to the original question, who would dare say that Ieuan Wyn Jones isn’t Plaid Cymru’s most successful leader.

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Saturday’s horsing tips.

Again the races followed are on the telly. Last week the predictions produced 4 winners, a 2nd and and only one that failed. A very healthy return.

Lets hope this Saturday sees the same form kept up.

My selections are below, remember to back each way on 7/1 and above and it might be worth doing a double combination bet on very low odds.

May the luck be with you.

Ascot

13:55 Shawbrook Bank Graduation Chase, 4yo plus, 2m 5f 110y, Class 2

Aerial seems to be ripe for showing he’s got more to offer Giorgio Quercus should do better at this distance

2:30  Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) 4yo plus, 3m 1f, Class 1

I can’t see any other horse in the race doing over Big Buck’s trained P F Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh. The odds will be pretty low so I shall use it as a base for a double.

15:05 GL Events Owen Brown Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed), 4yo plus, 3m, Class 1

Duc De Regniere or The Minack has never really shown its potential but this could be the start of a run

15:35 Ladbroke (Listed Handicap Hurdle), 4yo plus, 2m, Class 1

Brampour was good on flat but has not got used to hurdles it takes a while this could be the start or Sailors Warn

Haydock Park

14:10 Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle (3yo+ Class 2, 2m 4f,

Zanir or Pateese

14:45 Maxilead Metals Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 4yo+, Class 2, 3m

Wymott  should find the conditions suit and has alwys been regarded as a good chaser in the making or The Sawyer

15:20 Maxilead Metalss Face It Make Up ‘Fixed Brush’ Novices Hurdle 4yo+, Class 4 2m 4f

Highland Lodge or Diocles

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