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Assembly voting intentions

Welsh voters have judged the Liberal Democrats harshly according the latest ITVWales Yougov tracking poll. Of the Welsh voters surveyed only 10 per cent of them indicated that they would vote for them in the next Assembly elections. A fall of 5 per cent in the votes cast for them in the last Assembly elections and half of the votes the party gained in the May general election.

Labour are now at 39 per cent, a slight fall from the July poll but up 7 percentage points from the general election and the last Assembly elections, in both of which they polled 32 per cent.

Plaid Cymru are on 23 per cent and the Tories on 22 per cent.

Many Liberal Democrats will have serious concerns about next May’s elections given that their current position is before next Octobers major public expenditure cuts. It would seem that the voters are heaping all the blame on them and not on the Tories who don’t seem to have been affected in the current poll.

Labour must have some concern that they are not making more progress than they are, but it is likely that they will have a bounce in the polls when their new leader is elected next month.

Plaid Cymru need to be pushing a lot harder if they are to create a gap between themselves and the Conservatives. They have a difficult balancing act ahead of them on the one hand they need to take credit for the successes of the Cardiff Bay coalition government and on the other they need to show how different they are from Labour whom they will be challenging in the Valley seats.

The poll continues to show a positive result for the ‘yes’ vote in the referendum on more powers for the National Assembly.

Here is a full summary of the ITVWales YouGov tracking poll results

ASSEMBLY VOTING INTENTION

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls)

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

2007 Result May 2010 Poll June Poll July Poll August Poll

Labour 32% 32% 42% 40% 39%

Plaid Cymru 22% 22% 20% 22% 23%

Conservative 22% 21% 19% 20% 22%

Liberal Democrat 15% 20% 12% 13% 10%

Others 8% 5% 6% 5% 6%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

2007 Result May 2010 Poll June Poll July Poll August Poll

Labour 30% 30% 40% 37% 39%

Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 19% 20% 23%

Conservative 22% 21% 20% 20% 21%

Liberal Democrat 12% 18% 12% 14% 9%

Others 16% 9% 9% 8% 8%

REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION

(compared with previous polls).

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

April 2010 Poll June Poll July Poll August Poll

Yes 49% 55% 48% 48%

No 33% 28% 34% 32%

Don’t Know/ 18% 17% 19% 21%

Wouldn’t Vote

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